We are beginning to enter the doldrums of summertime, with many people on vacation, and kids out of school. As the slow month of June begins, a pattern tends to settle in economically, something dubbed a 'June Swoon.'

Economist Ray Perriman says it is something that does not happen necessarily every year, but it has nevertheless gained a reputation.

"It has happened often enough...you can look at graphs pf how stocks perform every month over time...you will see that June more often tends to have a downward trend," he says.

So, what is it that causes that pattern of down trend in June?

"It is a variety of things. Normally in June, you have sometimes a lull in the economic news that is taking place...usually, any budget thing going on has already happened," he says. "You also do not have earnings reports in June, those typically come out later in the summer."

Now, the month has gotten off to a fairly decent start, especially with passage of the debt ceiling bill last week. Perriman says things should stay pretty normal, but things get interesting with an inflation report due to be released this month.

"A great deal of inflation increase would certainly set things in motion in one direction, but if it is a good report, it will send it in a good direction," he says.

In the ever-advancing technological world too, artificial intelligence can play a role in how the stock market rolls. But AI might be a reason we stay above water in June.

"Those things will add to the volatility of the market, no question. But on the whole, I think AI has given tech stocks a shot in the arm," he says. "Tech stocks were taking it on the chin, until people realized the potential of AI, and they began doing well."

He adds that Bitcoin can also play a role in the swings of the market.

Maybe most important though, is the Fed and their battle with interest rates. That will be the difference between a June swoon or June bloom.

"That is what everyone is watching...they have been signaling that another increase is unlikely...as long as that is out there, there is really no apparent reason we should see stocks go down in June," says Perriman.

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