It's been a year in which economists have repeatedly warned that a recession was about to begin any minute, yet President Donald Trump's 2nd term economy has gotten off to "a positive start."

That's how economics and strategy planner Dan Varroney sees it, especially in knowing that fully one-third of those asked in a recent survey say they'll spend more than $1,000 on gifts this Christmas.

Mr. Varroney, the founder and CEO of business consultant firm Potomacore, says despite concern about increasing prices and supply chain issues left over from the Biden inflation years, "I think there's a sense of optimism that's growing -- small right now but growing -- and I think it's a very positive sign" for the future of the US economy.

"A very positive sign that people are saying, 'We can spend this kind of money on Christmas.'"

A large number of those who plan to spend more money say it's partly because prices are going up so their holiday budgets are increasing too, but that's also seen as a good sign because it indicates that consumers aren't "tapped out," despite higher insurance costs, electricity prices and increases in goods such as auto parts, which have been caught up for years in supply chain backlog problems.

Varroney says he's not surprised by Tuesday's official unemployment figures released by the saying "only" 64,000 jobs were added in November, which partially reversed the losses reported in October.

"I'm not surprised because interest rates are too high, and the cost of money is still too high.

"That's why housing sales aren't moving up, either existing homes or new homes, and that's why small businesses aren't hiring."

"And here in this season, we're in a time of gratitude, it's been a challenging year for a lot of us, and I think what I'm seeing is that people want to express their gratitude, in many different ways, to their friends and their loved ones.

Michael Berry