It’s finally runoff day here in Texas. After months of hard campaigning, many of the most hotly contested races—including the Texas Senate and Attorney General primaries—will finally be decided, and the stage will be set for the 2026 midterm elections.
The biggest race has drawn the most attention, becoming one of the most expensive primaries in Texas history. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn and his backers have spent roughly $100 million to defend his seat against challenger and current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Despite that massive spending, Cornyn is now considered something of an underdog in the race.
According to University of Houston-Downtown political science Professor Dr. Jacquie Baly: “He’s going to make this a closer race than people thought, but Ken Paxton is showing to be the winner based on most polls.”
Polling had shown the two candidates in what was effectively a dead heat for months. A major tipping point appears to be the recent endorsement of Paxton by President Trump. That, along with the large amount of support that Paxton has in the GOP base and among grassroots organizers, appears likely to push Paxton ahead and on to the November ballot.
The race to replace Ken Paxton as Attorney General is also in the runoff stage, with Congressman Chip Roy and Texas State Senator Mayes Middleton set to face off for the GOP nomination. Both candidates have strong records inside the GOP, with Senator Middleton backing several high-priority conservative bills in the State Senate, including recent legislation requiring the Ten Commandments be displayed in all public school classrooms, as well as the legislation that barred men from using women’s public spaces in government-owned buildings.
Representative Roy has, for his part, become a firebrand inside the House Freedom Caucus and led the campaign to pass the SAVE Act, which is a top legislative priority for President Trump. Roy has, however, run somewhat afoul of many in the GOP grassroots, with past comments about President Trump and his supporters coming back to haunt him.
Dr. Baly predicts that Senator Middleton will end up having the upper hand in that race, saying: “He has enormous wealth, and he decided to pour even more of it into campaigning and ads. It’s been very effective.”
Overall, with President Trump’s support inside Texas still strong, she expects those closest aligned to him and the MAGA agenda to win out in their primaries this evening, especially considering Trump’s many recent victories in primary races across the country.
That could also help propel Bo French onto the November ballot in his bid to become the next Railroad Commissioner. He’s challenging incumbent Jim Wright, who was endorsed by Governor Greg Abbott. Bo French, however, is widely seen as being to the right of Wright, which is likely to give him a leg up in the race.