Amidst all the talk of blue waves and Democrat sweeps in the upcoming midterm election, someone apparently forgot to tell the voters. A new Harvard-Harris poll of registered voters has Republicans and Democrats even at 50% support in the generic ballot. While the poll predictably has Republicans and Democrats each supporting their own party at a 96% rate, it notably finds Independents are narrowly split, supporting Democrats 52% - 48%. That is a change from polls earlier this year which had Dems leading in the generic ballot, and leading by a much wider margin among Independents. It also follows a recent poll showing Congressional Democrats' approval rating at an historic low.
What all this means is good news for Republicans, despite the legacy media's negative drumbeat on the economy and the Iran war. "Republicans have to be very happy that they are tied with Democrats overall, and within striking distance among Independents," says Jeff Crouere, host and political analyst. "Because how Independents break heading into the midterms will determine who's going to have control of Congress."
That wasn't the only positive news for the GOP in the poll. It also found 60% support for strengthening voter ID laws, a key Republican issue that is the centerpiece of the SAVE America Act now stalled in the Senate. "They can blame Democrats for the failure that this has not passed, it has popular support, the American people want it, but the Democrats are blocking it," says Crouere. "So this is definitely a big, winning issue for Republicans heading into this fall...and it looks like they'll have it through Election Day, because I do not see the SAVE America Act being passed by then."
The SAVE America Act is one of multiple wild card factors in the midterms, along with the Iran war and ongoing redistricting efforts in various states. But Crouere believes the election will ultimately hinge on the old tried-and-true. "I think the economy will still be the number one issue on Election Day, because it historically has been," he tells KTRH.
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