Experts are warning that the coming weeks will bring a startling but temporary series of changes in the world economy as effects of the Middle East war spread to interrupt supply chains.
You might think of it like an earthquake, with the biggest shocks centered, in this case, in the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping channel that has been closed by the Iranians while they conduct their war against the US and Israel.
In the center of the shock, the supplies of needed goods like food, fertilizer ingredients, the components for pharmaceutical supplies, and other commodities have been interrupted and now a slow-moving shock wave is emanating across the world, with nearby Asian nations such as South Korea, Japan and India are feeling the shock first.
But the wave continues, and Executive Director for Scholars at Peace In the Middle East Asaf Romanirowsky PhD says Europe will feel it next, with supply chains stretched to the breaking point for oil, gasoline and especially diesel fuel and fertilizer -- and that's a huge problem for a number of farmers because the growing season has been getting underway but the cost of some fertilizer ingredients are up 35-percent over past two months.
The US and Israel have been challenging Iran in this war, but China and Russia have been helping Iran militarily, so it's not surprising that those two nations are being hurt by the secondary effects of the war.
"I think we need to contextualize exactly what we're looking at, though. There needs to be a way for the society of Iran to thrive. The ultimate goal, of course, on the part of the US and Israel was to free the Iranian people from the regime, but now mostly we have to look at China and Russia, because they would be the ones who are going to be hurting the most.
"Of course, they're not allied with the United States so a lot of what's happening is putting a lot of pressure on those two nations, especially China.
"You could see some shortages in some types of food in the coming weeks, most of it related to items stemming from the Persian Gulf area, with aluminum and crude oil at critically low levels, but most of that will be felt strongest by Europe and the Asia nations along with Russia starting right away," because of supply ships, he says.
The problem: It's been almost six weeks since the war began and it takes supply ships from the Middle East about six weeks to make it to their port destinations -- so there's been a cushion against shocks for some Middle East exports.
But the cushion is being pulled out from underneath markets over the next week or two.
From the American perspective, though, Dr. Romanirowsky says these are "temporary issues as the war is continuing."
But it's most important to remember "the China dimension and the Russian dimension here, and it's also going to have an effect on India, so those are the places that will feel it the most," he says.
For instance, a huge demand for oil later this year could see Americans paying $6 a gallon for gasoline, but it's important to remember that gas is already that much and more in parts of Europe.
America is certainly not immune to shocks from increasing prices for oil and natural gas over the coming weeks, he says, but as a result of an increasingly escalating war, you'll see the impacts' trickle-down effect on European markets very soon.
"Less on the American markets, at least for now."
But it all still comes down to the number one question people everywhere, especially economists and geopolitical analysts, have been asking for almost six weeks -- how long will President Donald Trump and the Israeli allies continue the fighting, because markets won't even begin to start returning to previous norms for many weeks and perhaps months after the fighting ends.