One of the toughest aspects of President Donald Trump's possible plans to attack Iran is the question of what might happen to oil prices in a market where the price of gasoline is expected to go up by the end of this year anyway.
Cheap oil, and therefore cheap gasoline and diesel, is the cornerstone of the President's policy in keeping the US economy under control, and even slightly more expensive oil prices would likely subvert that policy and translate into higher inflation.
President Trump has been threatening Iran with military intervention since Iran began to defy calls for inspection of its uranium enrichment program, which could eventually lead to the building of a nuclear weapon.
Mr. Trump has said Iran cannot be allowed to weild a nuclear weapon, but complicating his foreign policy decision is Iran's close alliance with Russia and China, two nuclear powers which are threatening to aid Iran against the United States.
King Operating oil company's Jay Young says we have a short list of potential problems with oil and gasoline over the next few months.
One of the great threats that Iran can make for retaliation against any aggression by the US is the raising of oil prices worldwide by bombing oil fields nearby and the closing of the nearby Strait of Hormuz, shipping lanes that serve as perhaps the most important transit route for oil in the world.
If those Strait were shut down out of spite by Iran, 20-percent of the world's oil will temporarily disappear from the market, causing a huge rise in oil and gasoline prices -- and "we're not drilling as many wells in the United States as we were a few years ago," Young says.
And then it would be a big problem that the Strategic Oil Reserve, which was designed to help in cases such as conflict, is only 60-percent full because the Biden administration sold off much of that oil to keep prices down in 2022.
It would not be easy to get oil gushing, flowing freely in the US -- even in Texas -- in just a few weeks because drilling would have to gear up again, and that certainly wouldn't be cheap.
"We've drilled up a lot of our Tier One acreage, the acreage that has the best returns for our oil and gas companies," he says, and the Tier 2 assets will be more than just hammering a pipe into the ground and watching the oil surge out of the ground.
Future oil will take more expertise, more equipment and more money -- and unfortunately that will mean higher gasoline and diesel prices, among other items, and Young says even if there is no conflict or war with Iran, the price of gasoline will be going up by the end of the year because oil drilling is diminishing.
"And we are going to have the supplies by the end of this year, so we're going to see prices go up either way."