Dallas Fed Predicts Moderate Growth For Texas In 2026, Citing ICE Actions

The mainstream media and Democrats appear to be at their usual ways again, trying to stoke the fires of fear, uncertainty and chaos. The Dallas Ded's annual Texas Employment Forecast has indicated the state will add about 154,000 jobs this year, a 1.1-percent increase from last year. In their report, the Dallas Fed claimed the immigration crackdown is going to have adverse effects, and Texas will only see "moderate" growth in 2026.

But look back to 2025, where job growth remained flat in Texas. ICE operations were not close to their fever pitch yet and had not even started part of the year. Yet Democrats and the media will run with the narrative and blame President Trump for a theoretical loss of jobs. But really, all of it ends up being a bit overdramatic.

President and CEO of Corporate Connections Brenda Siri says in reality, the numbers to start this year are following the same usual trends.

"They tend to slow down hiring in January...as employers get a feel for the economy...then it starts to pick up in February," she says. "From what I am seeing, that is exactly what has been happening."

So, immigration crackdowns are apparently not a source of economic slowdown. As much as people might try to link the two together. Other things, like the rise in artificial intelligence, have also attributed to slow job growth.

Texas is also in a great position. A flat year of job growth in 2025 had little impact to the economy and there is actual growth projected in 2026. That is the normal in the state, which usually sits among the top in the nation when it comes to growth.

"Texas consistently has larger job gains than other states, they tend to outpace the national growth rate and have already done that in 2026...we already have lower unemployment rates than the national average...Texas continues to lead the way in growth," says Siri.

Do not expect that to stop anytime soon, either. More businesses are packing up to leave oppressive states like California and relocate to the more business-friendly Texas. The state is already ahead of the curve, so adding more to it is just the cherry on top of the sundae.

So, a "moderate" year of growth in Texas, all things considered, is still a good year. Especially compared to other states our size.

"California is still at pre-pandemic unemployment rates...New York is just hovering near the national average," Siri says.

She adds that Texas' job diversity will always keep the state ahead of the curve.