Tis the Season to be jolly! It looks like shoppers are setting aside all that “uncertainty” in the economy, for more gifts around the tree. Economist Ray Perryman says these surveys are dependable and have long time been good indicators of the economic pulse. “We have been receiving and tracking these surveys for decades. If you look out over a 5–6-year period, they tend to predict and track things very well.” He said.
One of the consumer sentiment surveys was conducted by the University of Michigan painting a grim November. Bank of America economists noted the deterioration in views of personal finances and widespread affordability concerns.
The economist also pointed to one study that showed, 1 out of 4 families, were living paycheck to paycheck and couldn’t afford a small disruption to their household expenses. He says there are legitimate concerns here.
Perryman maintains these surveys, over the years, have proven to be close in their forecasting, it is not only had to manage and predict, and there is a margin of error allowed. He says people also change their behavior after they take part in surveys, so that skews sales numbers too.
On the other hand, retailers want your business. The report showed by the end of Thanksgiving weekend, 84 percent of consumers had begun their holiday shopping. In addition, they are jump starting the holiday season earlier each year (it seems) and enticing buyers with hot deals and no interest incentives, prompting a boost in large purchases such as a car or truck. The report showed higher sales in November by 1.8 percent ahead of October.
The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday spending will top 1 trillion dollars for the first time with growth between 3.7 and 4.2 percent over 2024.
“On the whole, people are going to spend a little more this year than they did last year, given all the uncertainty, I think that’s a positive sign for the retailers this Christmas season.
The Christmas spirit of gift giving seems to take over at this time of year. The Christmas lights, the music and holiday cheer seems to resonate. Also, people don’t want to miss out on those hot holiday deals online and in person. The good thing now is you can get a good holiday deal without stressing you’re missing out, if you are one of those people. Perryman sales the hot sales are rolled out earlier, and the sales period is extended, proving to pay off in dividends for retailers.