Texas Senator Ted Cruz has faced ups and downs while being in his seat. The Cancun trip during Winter Storm Uri, the Presidential run in 2016, and his 2018 race with Robert Francis (Beto) O'Rourke. That 2018 race in particular was a nail biter, and if Beto had simply drawn back his stance on guns, he probably could have beaten Cruz for the seat. In 2024, Cruz faces a new challenger, 32nd District Representative Colin Allred of Dallas.
Allred has drawn comparisons to Beto, somehow, and Democrats seem to believe that this is finally their chance to win a statewide race in Texas for the first time since 1994. A new poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University seems to agree with that, with their survey claiming Cruz is favored in the race by a mere 2.1 percent.
However, political analyst Bill Miller says polls before Labor Day generally need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially here in Texas.
"The perception that this race is close is wrong...he did have a close race in 2018, but it was not a presidential election year, and the circumstances were entirely different" he says.
Indeed, 2018 was close, with Cruz beating Beto by 2.5 points. But that says a lot about how deep red Texas really is at its core. Beto his every county in one of the largest grassroots campaigns ever, made a legitimate challenge, and still lost by almost three points. But with an open border, raging inflation, and economic concerns, people are having a hard time leaning Blue this time.
A lot has happened since that 2018 race, though, and Cruz has undoubtedly learned quite a bit, including the fact that his seat is not a guarantee like it used to be.
But this race likely will not be as close as the Beto one was six years ago.
"I see this ending up as between an eight-to-ten-point race at the end of the day...Cruz will not run away with it, but it will not be a nail biter like Beto," he says.
As mentioned, Democrats have not won a statewide race in the deep red state of Texas in 30 years now, since 1994. They vow every election cycle to turn the state blue, and every time, they get turned away at the gate.
While that should remain the theme, do not expect them to be shutout forever.
"They will be shutout for the time being unless the Republicans field a weak candidate, and Democrats come up with circumstances that help them across the board," he says. "They will eventually win a race statewide...and they will win more than that, and when they do, the spell will be broken."
But until that spell is broken, Texas will remain true to its roots. But in time, the battle might become closer than we are used to seeing.
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