The stock market's surge this year gives Kamala edge to win election

Less than three months from election day in the United States, there is really no way to know who will win the presidency. You can look at whatever polls, talk to whoever you want, but in the end, the results really are just not known. There are too many variables, too many issues, and ultimately, too much time between now and then to firmly say who will win.

But, if you base things on Wall Street, the stock market has its own prediction. People tend to vote for the incumbent, or the residing party in power, if the stock market is doing well. Given the stock market's strong year-to-date performances, a study from MarketWatch says that Kamala Harris has a 64 percent chance to win the election. That is up from the 58 percent chance reported by the same outlet in May, mostly due to stocks being higher now than they were then.

Financial planner Richard Rosso says though things are still up in the air, and if you are an investor, you need to not pay attention to it much.

"There are a lot of trading groups saying it will be Trump," he says. "But if you are an investor, and you will invest based on who is going to be president...then you are not a very good investor."

The most recent study from May, of course, took into account Joe Biden instead of Kamala Harris. But the change has not impacted the statistic conclusion, which is just based on the identity of the incumbent party.

Now, none of this is scientific or by any means an accurate depiction of how things will play out. The stock market could crash before election day and shift the entire momentum to Donald Trump.

But it always comes down to one thing. Not the stock market, not who the president is, it comes down to the tale as old as time: the Federal Reserve.

"The overlying theme has been an accommodating Fed manipulating markets and interest rates...that is what the market cares about, not who the president is," he says.

That is not to say the Presidency does not matter, they will ultimately pick the Fed Chair.

But it always comes down to them as far as the market is concerned, not who sits in the Oval Office.

"We have been in a process where the Fed comes in on a white horse and bails out the market...as long as that condition is met, who cares who the president is," he says. "You could make Shara Fryer and Jimmy Barrett president, no one will care, as long as the Fed is doing what the market wants them to do."