A tropical disturbance is likely to form in the Bay of Campeche early next week. The National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next seven days.
Forecaster Eric Berger with Space City Weather says that high pressure over the southern United States will help to keep this system penned up in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and eventually steer it westward into Mexico or South Texas. Although some organization is possible, the main threat from this tropical system is very likely to be heavy rainfall.
Due to the overall steering that we’re expecting, rainfall accumulations for the Houston area next week are likely to be manageable. Totals are likely to be highest along the coast, with the potential for 3 to 5 inches, with lesser amounts likely for inland areas. Greater accumulations than this are possible for locations further south, such as the Brownsville area, but uncertainty remains.
We will know more as we get closer to the weekend about this system.