The United States Senate and House have done a flip flop, back and forth switch between majorities for over a century now. We have had an all-Republican President, House and Senate. We have also had an all-Democrat President, House, and Senate. As we stretch into election year 2024, we are inching toward yet another flipping of majorities. This time, it could be the Democrat-led Senate that gets a flip over to the red side of life.
The Democrats currently hold a very thin majority at 51-49, with one of those being West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who tends to fall on the right side of the Left. Now, they have 20 seats to defend, with many of them falling in what will surely be Donald Trump strongholds in November.
SMU political science professor Cal Jillson says West Virginia, as Joe Manchin retires, will flip Red.
"Manchin has been seen as the only Democrat who can win a statewide race in West Virginia at this point...when he decided not to run again, everyone looked at Jim Justice...who is a well-liked Republican," he says. "That makes it 50-50."
From there, the race is on to 51, with plenty of suitors on the table.
In big sky country, Republcians are rallying around Tim Seehy as their hope to oust Democrat Senator Jon Tester. That is a state with yet another favorable advantage for Trump and Republcians.
"You expect they will go red...it has gone barely blue or purple in the past," he says.
Other states are on the board though, which could widen the Republican majority in the Senate. As it does with so many elections, the State of Ohio could be a pivotal turning point for collecting a Senate majority. There, Democrat Sherrod Brown will try to fend off whoever the GOP candidate ends up being.
Arizona also comes to mind, with Republican Kari Lake running in a possible three-way race against Independent Kyrsten Sinema, and Democrat Ruben Gallego.
Meanwhile, only two seats are truly up to defend for Republicans, and those races are really not even close. Florida's Rick Scott is expected to retain his seat fairly comfortably. The other seat to note is here in Texas, where Ted Cruz will strap on the campaign boots to fight off a Democrat nominee, who will likely be Colin Allred.
"The question is does he have something to say to Texas that will make them think twice about supporting Ted Cruz," he says.
Beto O'Rourke came in hot in 2018 and gave people just enough of a spark to question their allegiance to Cruz. Beto visited all 254 counties in the state, and shook hands with every man, woman, and baby he could, and still could not beat Cruz in an election. There is no reason to think it is different this time either.
"Another question is whether or not Allred has that same sizzle that Beto had...I do not think so. But he does have a solidity that is attractive to people," Jillson says. "We will see if he can talk about issues that Democrats stumble over...like abortion, guns, and the border....in a more Texas accent."
In the end, the GOP will likely get it wish of flipping the Senate, but it may not accomplish very much.
"The Republicans will control the Senate maybe 52-48...but the Democrats control the house," he says.
The path is there, but the question is which winding road the GOP takes to a majority. The Texas Primaries are March 5th.
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