Tensions in the pacific have been palpable in recent weeks, to say the least. United States and Chinese warships came within miles of one another, and the threat of a China invasion Taiwan has been on the table for a long time.
The U.S. has their allies in the Pacific. But we might be on our own if the Chinese finally decide to stop bluffing, and surge into the small island nation. Japan has reportedly become wary of the situation, and likely will not prove much help.
Jeff Addicott from the St. Mary College of Law says that is not a betrayal on their part, it is simply because they bar themselves from doing so.
"Part of the Japanese Constitution post-World War Two actually prohibits them from engaging in war and having a military...a consequence of the Japanese Imperial Army's aggression during World War Two," he says. "They do have a defense force and a small Army...they do not have much to contribute even if they wanted."
Japan would be the closest help the U.S. could get, sitting just 70 miles from Taiwan. Another 54,000 American troops sit stationed in Okinawa. There is a regional strategic defense umbrella there with China and other countries there, which requires members to contribute at least something...but that 'something' is always a question.
But the real problem might not even lie with fighting a war alone. It may lie in how much of our own supplies we have shifted off to Ukraine. Since their conflict with Russia began, the U.S. has diverted $75 billion in various money, military munitions, and other supplies to Ukraine. Which makes us that much weaker.
"Our munitions are at an extremely low point...that is an issue. Would we even be able to do anything, given the distance, logistic, and how the Chinese are building their military," he says. "The other thing...would the Administration have the stomach to do it."
There is not a question the United States has exuded weakness since President Joe Biden took office. Less than a year onto the job, Biden was faced with the evacuation of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, as the Taliban gained control of Kabul. What followed was an unmitigated disaster which killed 13 American soldiers, among many others.
"As we saw with how they departed Kabul...our enemies believe there is no stomach in this administration to actually use force," he says. "That is what they are calculating...that they can get away with it."
Going back to the Russia-Ukraine war, and showing weakness, the United States continues getting weaker, the longer that conflict persists. Not just because we are sending all our military stockpiles, either.
"We keep being told the Ukrainians will win, just one counter offense away...this is false. There is no way you are going to drive Russia out...the Ukrainians are going to lose," he says. "We are putting ourselves in a situation to lose again, like in Afghanistan...because they refuse to negotiate. The Russians will emerge victorious."
Addicott concludes that the sooner the Ukraine war ends, the better chance we will have to fight a war in Taiwan. It is an ending he says might come soon, as well.
Photo: AFP