A recent poll from News Nation shows that 49.05% of the population would decide to vote for a third-party presidential candidate in 2024, if indeed we get Donald Trump versus Joe Biden once again.
But how realistic is it that a third-party candidate gains steam? SMU political science professor Cal Jillson says people are very open minded to the idea until the chips are down.
"People think of themselves as open to new candidates and information," he says. "But when you get right down to it, and that curtain closes behind you in the voting booth...it will likely be in the mid-single digits of people who will vote for a third-party candidate."
Voters have said they have concerns over Biden's age, and Trump's current legal issues, which is sending them seeking anyone else.
"As they look, they are going to realize there are no viable alternatives," he says.
It has been years since any third-party candidate made noise at election time. Even with the political world where it is, we are still pretty far off from a three-party ticket. Mostly because there is no one who wants to do it.
"It is a logistical nightmare. You have to figure out legal requirements for getting on the ballot in all 50 states, which is challenging," he says. "But, while you are doing that, you still have to be campaigning for president...and engaging with the American people. That is all very difficult. It is a hard row to hoe."
The last real outside noisemaker was Ross Perot in the 1990s. He gathered up 19 million votes in 1992. The only ones close to Perot's numbers since then have been Gary Johnson in 2016 with 4.4 million votes, and Ralph Nader in 2000 with 2.5 million votes.
"Even with a wealthy guy who can make the case...think back to 2012 when Michael Bloomberg looked at a third-party candidacy, then backed away," he says. "Credible people who take a look at a third party run just generally do not do it."
So, 2024 is right around the corner. Will we get any surprises on the ballot? Jillson says no.
"Most voters don't pay close attention to politics. They know what party they prefer...and most likely vote for that candidate," he says. "I think Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the nominees...and I think it will be a close race."
As for what third-party candidate those surveyed would like to see, 16% said Michelle Obama, 6% said Texas Governor Greg Abbott, and 6% said California Governor Gavin Newsome. An additional 33% said they would like to see 'someone else.'
Photo: Getty Images