Republicans have made steady gains with Hispanic voters in recent years, especially in states like Texas and Florida. As the 2024 elections approach, new data shows there may be more gains to be had. A recent analysis finds that first-time Hispanic voters are outpacing non-Hispanics, and that a growing number of those younger Hispanic voters consider themselves independent or nonpartisan. That provides an opportunity for the GOP, which has been ramping up outreach to Hispanics in recent elections.
Texas has been one of the biggest examples of Republican success with Hispanic voters. Several heavily Latino districts in South Texas surprisingly went for Donald Trump in 2020. Then, a longtime Democrat Congressional district elected Republican Mayra Flores in a special election last year. (Flores lost re-election narrowly in a re-districted race in the fall.) Both Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis did very well with Hispanics in their re-election bids last year, as well. "If you have a candidate that resonates in those heavily Hispanic communities, like along the Texas border, with a jobs message...then you're likely to move the needle," says Cal Jillson, SMU political science professor. "And that's what Trump did in 2020."
Despite the success stories of Trump, Abbott and DeSantis, courting Latino voters is still an uphill battle for the GOP nationwide. In last year's Congressional races, 60% of Latinos backed Democrats, versus 39% who supported Republicans. "You've got to have the right candidate, with the right message, in the right economic climate for Republicans to continue to improve among Hispanics," says Jillson.
Jillson also cautions the GOP not to get too excited about the growing number of 'independent' Hispanic voters. "The pool of actual independent voters is always smaller than it looks in the polls," he tells KTRH. "So while some change in the Hispanic electorate is certainly possible, it's not likely to be anything sweeping."
The other factor for Republicans to remember is not all Hispanic voters are the same. Those in states like Texas and Florida tend to be more conservative than Hispanics in blue states like California and New York. "You can do quite well among Hispanics in a heavily Hispanic state like Texas, and still have a lot of work to do nationwide in a presidential election," says Jillson.
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