Texas Democrats' long-held elusive dream of turning the state blue has blown up repeatedly in recent election cycles, and now one of the theories propping up the idea appears to have collapsed. A review of polling data from recent years finds that people who move to Texas from out of state actually tend to be conservative and vote Republican by strong margins. Specifically, in exit polling from the 2018 Texas U.S. Senate race, native Texans favored Beto O'Rourke by three points, while transplants supported Ted Cruz by 15 points.
If Texas transplants are as solidly conservative as those numbers suggest, the state should remain in the red category for a long time. That's because Texas is the number one destination state on U-Haul's annual list of one-way truck rentals. Not surprisingly, most of those moving here are from California. Paul Chabot is the president and funder of Conservative Move, a North Texas-based company that assists people in relocating here. "We help families move largely from blue states to red states, operating now in about 40 different states," he tells KTRH. "And Texas by far is the number one recipient of conservatives making the move."
As for who exactly are the people coming here in droves, Chabot should know better than most, because he is one of them. He is a former Californian who, along with his wife, packed up their four children and moved to Texas in 2013 for a better life. "These people moving here are largely middle-class parents with young kids, just making sure their kids are going to be raised in an area where the streets are safe and the schools are performing well," he says.
While some Texans have bristled at all of these new transplants, Chabot believes we should embrace them, noting they may actually be the key to keeping Texas red well into the future. "I think the most surprising thing that many Texans will like to hear is that most people who are moving here are not turning the state blue," he says. "They are conservative."
"So if you've got new neighbors who moved here from out of state, go talk to them," he continues. "They've got a breadth of experience to share with you about what they went through, and how to keep Texas the great economic freedom engine that it is today."