The election is less than five months away and if history is any indication, President Trump may have an uphill battle ahead of him.
We've seen this happen to incumbents before. In 1992, a down economy was the reason George Bush lost to Bill Clinton. Franklin and Marshall's Terry Madonna says it's happened to Democrats, too.
"When problems occur, it's generally because of the economy. A recession cost Jimmy Carter in 1980," Madonna said.
Madonna also says the political environment now is different than it was four years ago.
"Back in 2016 we were dealing with an anti-establishment candidate in Trump appealing to a particularly important segment of the American electorate," Madonna said, adding that he hasn't used the theme of being anti-establishment this year.
But, even though the polls favor Joe Biden now, they also favored Hillary Clinton four years ago. And they were all wrong.