If you want to know how the election might turn out, look at the economy


If you're trying to figure out how the election will play out in November, just look at what the economy is doing.

The economy has actually predicted 16 of the last 18 Presidential elections when an incumbent was running. Historian Terry Madonna says it's happened to both parties including a beloved Houston based President.

"George Herbert Walker Bush sought re-election in 1992, and was defeated by Bill Clinton, largely because of the economic downturn," Madonna said, adding that the same thing happened to Jimmy Carter in the 1980 race against Ronald Reagan.

Madonna says the economy can also predict elections in different situations.

"It's not just a question of the re-election of a President. This could also happen with an open seat, meaning an incumbent President is not seeking re-election," Madonna explained, adding that influenced the outcome of the 2008 election, giving us Barack Obama's win over John McCain.

The last time the economy was wrong when it came to the election won by Calvin Coolidge.


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