How important are swing voters?


If you believe one political scientist, swing voters aren't as important as you may have thought they were.

That's what Rachel Bitecofer with the Niskanen Center says, telling KTRH swing voters are a small part of the picture.

"Swing voters only make up about 5-6% of the electorate, and they mostly are motivated by the anti-status quo change element," Bitecofer explained.

Sam Wang at Princeton University told us Bitecofer is on to something with her theory.

"Voters are more predictable than ever, both in how individuals vote over time, and how whole demographics vote. This means that more than ever, elections are about turnout more than persuasion," Wang said.

Bitecofer says what she wishes more people would come to that conclusion.

"Almost no one has been talking about that independent turnout factor," Bitecofer stated.

Before you write her theory off, keep in mind that Democrats won just one seat less than Bitecofer predicted they'd win in 2018.

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