Here they go again. For years, media and Democrats have speculated that deep-red Texas will eventually turn blue and move Democrat, for a variety of reasons. This phenomenon has even been dubbed the "Blue Texas Fantasy" by some critics, as it has failed to materialize despite years of warnings. Now, a conservative outlet is predicting a blue turn for Texas, based on changing demographics. The report cites the Hispanic birth rate outpacing the white birth rate, noting that Texas' Hispanic population now exceeds its white population. Since Hispanics have traditionally voted Democrat in strong majorities, the report surmises that Texas' voting trends will move toward Democrats in the years to come.
But longtime Texas political players disagree with that assessment. In fact, they argue just the opposite is true. "President Trump actually increased his share of the Hispanic vote in Texas from 2016 to 2020, so the trends are actually Hispanic voters are becoming more Republican," says Steve Munisteri, former Chair of the Texas GOP. "Republicans have a greater share of the Hispanic vote today, than they did a decade ago."
Indeed, the Hispanic vote in Texas has moved to the right in recent elections, with Republicans actually flipping some Hispanic border districts that had voted Democrat for decades. But even before that shift, Texas Hispanics have always been more of a swing vote bloc. Munisteri points out that George W. Bush, John Cornyn, Ted Cruz and Greg Abbott have all received about 50% Hispanic support in Texas elections. "You can't compare California to Texas," says Munisteri. "Gallup did a survey and found that Hispanic voters in California were much more liberal than Hispanic voters in Texas."
"We found the same thing...we polled Texas Hispanic voters when I was GOP Chairman, and we found that on individual issues, they tended to be not only conservative, but more conservative than other voter groups."