Can the last one out of Congress shut off the lights behind you? That is what it feels like now, with dozens of members already announcing their retirements ahead of next year's midterms. So far, 40 House members---about 10%---have either already left office, are leaving soon, or are not seeking re-election in 2026. Of the 40 departures, 23 are Republicans, including a large number from Texas. Reps. Michael McCaul, Troy Nehls, Chip Roy, Jodey Arrington, and Morgan Luttrell are all bowing out next year for varying reasons. On the Democrat side, Dallas-area Rep. Marc Veasey is leaving to run for Tarrant County Judge, and Jasmine Crockett just announced she's running for U.S. Senate.
The good news for Republicans is that most of those leaving office are in safe GOP seats, and Texas is expected to pick up even more Republican seats now that the Supreme Court has allowed the state's new political maps to be used next year. But the sheer amount of turnover, combined with the GOP's razor-thin advantage, is cause for nervousness among Republicans. "I think you are seeing some Republicans make the decision to retire, in part because they were already thinking about it, but what has pushed them to formally retire is the growing belief that the Republican party is going to be in the minority come January 2027," says Mark Jones, political science professor at Rice University. "And that's a much less desirable place to be for a U.S. House member than in the majority."
Nobody knows the stakes of holding the House next year better than President Donald Trump. That is why he's already launching a campaign-style tour to tout his economic message, and encouraging other Republican-led states to follow Texas' lead and redraw political maps to add GOP seats. "President Trump fully realizes that if Democrats take control of the U.S. House, he's going to face an onslaught of subpoenas, possibly an impeachment, and a whole host of actions that will distract him from governance," says Jones. "And it will make it virtually impossible for him to pass much of his priority legislation."