For all intents and purposes, the GOP primaries are over. Former President Donald Trump will be the nominee in 2024 for the Republicans, unless either a miracle happens, and Nikki Haley gains about 30 points in every state, or Trump is barred from ballots. But, to her credit, none of this has deterred Nikki Haley, even after all other opponents have dropped out of the primary race.
She is sailing straight into the Trump hurricane, hoping to find any inkling of hope along the way. In a memo from after the Iowa Caucus, where she placed third, Haley says they believe they have chances to gain ground in upcoming open primary states, such as Texas. The basis of her claim is that open primaries allow Democrat and Independent voters to cross over, and maybe siphon some numbers away from Trump.
Brad Johnson of The Texan says this idea of closed primaries has been floated previously.
"At the 2022 convention, they took a step toward this when they removed every explicit reference to election code from their primary rules," he says. "Any named citation was removed from the rules. They argue if they do that, it eliminates the oversights of how they can run the election."
Texas only has one restriction for voters, and that is those who cast a ballot in one party's primary cannot then cross over and vote in the opposite party's election in the same cycle.
But none of this is likely to matter this cycle, solely because the Trump train is running at full steam.
"It is quite a big delta...even getting some crossover voters in Texas, I do not think it will do Nikki Haley any good...maybe in other states it helps her...but in Texas, it is pretty set that Donald Trump is going to win on March 5th."
While it is presumed Haley might phone it in a bit in Texas, and campaign elsewhere, it does not mean she is going to not care.
"It is still Texas...winning the state is a big deal. If she can tear away some delegates from Trump in Texas, I think she will take that as a victory, regardless of what happens here," he says. "Overall, it is definitely other states to watch for with Nikki Haley."
As for what is beyond the Texas primaries? Johnson says despite a large blue population in Texas, Trump will take the state over Biden in November.