Houston Democrat Congressman Al Green recently argued that President Trump will win re-election unless impeached, and now a political historian and election expert is backing up that claim. American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine presidential elections, told CNN last week that Democrats must impeach Trump in order to have a chance to take back the White House.
Lichtman's system examines 13 factors or "keys" for incumbent presidents. "There has to be six negative factors against the party holding the White House to predict their defeat," Lichtman said. "(Trump is) down only three."
Lichtman went on to argue that even if Democrats don't succeed in removing Trump from office, they can weaken him for 2020 with impeachment hearings. "Impeachment would nail down the scandal key, a fourth key," he said. "It might trigger other keys like a real challenge to his re-nomination, or a third party, enough to defeat him."
Other political science experts aren't so sure about Lichtman's theory. SMU Political Science Professor Cal Jillson agrees Trump is in a solid position now, but also notes that there is a lot of time until Election Day 2020. "If this good economy continues into the first half of 2020, there is a good chance that Donald Trump is re-elected," says Jillson. "But between now and then, many things besides impeachment could happen, which would affect the outcome of this race."