If the latest read on the American political landscape is any indication, we are in for another nail-biter election this year. Pew Research's 2024 survey on party affiliation among registered voters finds an almost even split, with 49% of Americans identifying with or leaning Democrat, and 48% identifying with or leaning Republican. That divide has remained similarly close over the past three decades, but Republicans have closed the small gap Democrats had gained between 2017 and 2021.
The headline results aren't necessarily surprising in a politically divided nation, but underneath the surface there are many changing political trends. "We are still pretty much evenly divided, that has been happening for awhile," says Jacquie Baly, political science professor at UH-Downtown. "But the makeup within each party is changing subtly, and that is what we need to watch."
Not only is the makeup in each party changing, but party identification itself is bucking traditional trends. "Usually, as you get older you lean toward the right or Republican, but we're seeing Generation X and Millennials are still trending more in the independent range," says Baly.
The other notable change over the past few decades is the shift of working class voters from majority Democrat to majority Republican. Baly notes this trend accelerated under Donald Trump. "Many white, middle class voters who voted for decades for the Democratic Party and Democratic officials, felt that the values and leadership in the Democrat Party left them," she tells KTRH. "Then in comes Donald Trump, and he says I have you."
While Democrats continue to hold strong advantages among urban voters, college graduates, and single women, the GOP is making some notable gains in other areas within the past decade, namely with Hispanics. "The stronghold Democrats had on people of color is dissipating," says Baly. "Latinos and Hispanics have been trending Republican for awhile, but a little more surprising is that actually the stronghold Democrats have on Blacks is no longer as strong as in the past."
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