On The Map: Hurricane Center Updates Forecast Tools

The 2025 hurricane season has arrived, and with it some new forecasting tools from the National Hurricane Center. The NHC is updating its "cone of uncertainty" map, adding a new map of rip current risks, and extending the forecast window for Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) advisories from 48 hours to 72 hours. The changes are aimed at allowing more advanced warnings of storms, and the potential impacts of those storms after landfall.

The "cone of uncertainty" graphic is well-known to anyone who's followed hurricanes, but it's not always understood. The cone shows the likely path of the storm's center, based on the path of similar storms over the last five years. But it does not measure the intensity of the storm or its full impact, either inside or outside the cone. This year, the NHC is narrowing the cone to make it more accurate. The cone will also now include more info beyond where the storm makes landfall. "The biggest change to the (cone) graphic is the addition of inland watches and warnings," says Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist. "That helps convey the impact---not so much am I in the cone or am I outside of the cone---but what's actually going to happen, what are the impacts of this particular storm, including those inland impacts."

Another updated forecast tool could be especially useful for Texans. "The hurricane center is doing a heat risk map after the storm makes landfall," says Lindner. "This was obviously a big deal for us during Beryl with all the power outages afterward, so what does that heat stress look like?"

"Obviously hurricanes make landfall in the summertime, we know it's going to be hot and humid, but this map will show what is that risk threat level going to be?"