By 2038, the supply of surgeons is expected to drop over 4 percent, while demand is over 12 percent- totaling almost 28,000 surgeons- according to research by Case Western Reserve University. E.R. Doctor Amy Ho says people end up at the emergency room because they couldn't get an appointment with a specialist. "So sometimes they end up waiting for procedures a little bit too late until it's an emergency- because that's the only way they can get in." She said.
Specialties such as vascular, ophthalmology, thoracic, and plastic surgery will face the biggest shortages- more so in rural areas. Dr. Ho says in other instances, the ER doesn't have a surgeon available. "All we can do is transfer and there are so many horror stories from ERs about transferring. Patients are waiting days to get accepted because other hospitals are saturated, or you're in Kansas and you're getting shipped off to New Mexico just to find a hospital that will accept the patient. So, it's an endemic healthcare issue." Dr. Ho said.
The author of the study, Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, pointed out there is hope: Proposed bill H.R. 3890- The Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, which is working its way through Congress- could curb this pressing national issue. The bill would raise the number of resident surgeons in training. Another part of the bill proposes removing federal caps on student loans potentially offering loan forgiveness programs. "If we try to mitigate or eliminate some of the financial pressures of becoming a surgeon- especially a surgical subspecialty - so that people are more enticed to go into it." She said.