New polls show Independent voters flipping Democrat in 9-point swing

We are just over two weeks from Election Day, in what might be the most anticipated election of our lifetime. It has been the election cycle of choosing sides, with both Republicans and Democrats dug into their sands firmly. But there are still the Independent 'undecided' voters out there, which both teams are trying to snag before November.

But for Republicans, if you trust a new Gallup poll, they may have lost the battle. The newest survey shows that Independent voters have switched toward Democrats in a 9-point swing away from the GOP. If true, it would be a swing that could decide what is expected by many pollsters to be a close election.

But Andy Hogue of the Travis County GOP says their survey can only reach about 1,000 people at best, which does not give an accurate sample size.

"Sampling and averaging seem to be the way most are looking at the election...so naturally, there are lots of smaller polls being commissioned," he says.

In the poll before this one, which questioned Independents in early September, Republicans were in the lead with 50 percent while 45 percent leaned toward Democrats. That has now swung to a 49 to 45 advantages for the Democrats. Again, assuming this is representative of all Independent voters, which the poll is not.

The idea these are somehow 'undecided' voters though is laughable. Just about everyone knows at this point who they are voting for because again, everyone has picked a line in the sand. So, these numbers might be baked in already and might not signify much of anything.

However, Hogue notes there was another poll done by Atlas Intel, which was the most accurate in 2020. They did the same size survey across the key battleground states, and found Donald Trump had a 1.5-point lead. So, in reality, the Independents which really will matter seem to be swung toward the GOP.

"The Republicans tend to be very forgiving as well...they want to see the ideas, and see someone fix the last guy's mistakes," he says.

Many recent polls have shown in favor of Trump, with multiple showing Trump leads by at least +3 in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida, where he has an almost double-digit advantage.

Of course, these are all conjecture, and only time will tell on who wins when the dust settles. But until then, Hogue adds we should be focused not so much on how other people are voting.

"We should not be voting based on who will win anyway...vote your values and principles at the ballot this year," he says.