You always have to take polls in presidential elections with a grain of salt. In 2016, the website FiveThirtyEight projected Hillary Clinton as the winner by over 10 points, and we know how that turned out. Conversely, it looked like Donald Trump had secured reelection in 2020, before all the nonsense of that election took place. Now just 56 days out from Election Day 2024, new polls are coming out that show Trump has a lead in Texas, but not as big as you might expect.
A new University of Texas poll shows Trump with a 49 to 44 advantage over Kamala Harris in the state. If you are from Texas, or know anything about Texas, that seems a bit low.
However, SMU political science professor Cal Jillson says though, all things considered, this is just about how things will shake out in November.
"Over the course of the last four or five elections, the Republican advantage has come down from 12 to 15 points...down to this 5-to-6-point range, so this is probably pretty accurate," he says.
We all have heard for two decades now that a 'blue wave' is coming for Texas, but it has never hit the shore, or really come very close. A Democrat still has not been elected for statewide office since 1992.
Unsurprisingly, the large cut has been the result of a major demographic swing in Texas, where mostly Democrat Hispanic voters have flooded into the state.
"This is still a red state though...five to six points is still a major gap...and it would take a huge Trump meltdown to shake this race up, and lead to a Harris victory here in 2024," he says. "But it does suggest our politics are becoming more competitive."
There is always too for Democrats an Achilles Heel, and that is the silent majority. That being the logical people, who are going to vote for Trump, but are too afraid to admit it publicly, or to a pollster.
In just about any state too, the urban areas tend to vote blue, while rural areas vote red. Oklahoma and Utah might be an exception to that. But it is a trend that follows here in Texas as well, with Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio always voting Democrat.
But even as the suburbs lean Blue more now, it is still not enough.
"The Republican strength is in rural and small-town Texas...the cities are going to be strongly Democrats, but it still leaves you five points short...only time will continue giving Demographic support for two party politics down the road," he says.
There is still, inexplicably, a large number of 'undecided' voters out there, who have yet to make up their mind between Harris or Trump. In Texas, it is about three or four percent. But those votes will not matter.
"The undecided vote is unlikely to make a difference because we have well-known candidates, and people have their opinions fixed...there are not many votes to be won out there, os it is a 'get out the vote' kind of election, as it has been for many cycles now," says Jillson.
The last time Texas voted Democrat in a presidential election was in 1976.
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