A system in the Southern Gulf of Mexico has now been given a 50% chance to develop over the next week.
Our friends at Space City Weather do not expect the system to directly impact us. But, we will get multiple days of rains from storms that are loosely associated with the system.
This is from meteorologist Matt Lanza:
"We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it’s a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours. This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
We are beginning to see decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall. I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding. The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs. Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast, while our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall."
As for the area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center:
"This is related but separate from the rain we see next week. While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast."
The system is not the only threat we are watching in the Gulf; forecasters say there could be another system that tries to develop during the week of the 24th.