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The Atlantic Hurricane season begins next week, and NOAA is predicting above average activity.
The forecast calls for above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
The forecast is ibn line with the Colorado State University outlook, which called for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
AccuWeather's outlook called for 20-25 storms, with 8 to 12 hurricanes, and between 4 and 7 major hurricanes.
The Atlantic Hurricane season begins on June 1st.