The 2019 hurricane seasonal forecast from the Tropical Meteorology Project was announced at the National Tropical Weather Conference.
U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Probability designer and Colorado State University research scientist Dr. Philip Klotzbach finds the probabilities of landfalling tropical cyclones along the U.S. coastlines from Brownsville to Maine.
“The Atlantic basin tends to go through periods of heightened activity of 25 to 35 years with major Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes,” said Klotzbach.
Experts predict a slightly below normal activity hurricane season.
An average hurricane season has six hurricanes.
Klotzbach forecasts five for this year.
"A total of 13 named storms, of those 13, five becoming hurricanes and of those five, two becoming major Category Three, Four, Five hurricanes, those are winds of 100 level miles per hour or greater," said Klotzbach. "That's slightly below the long term average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecast comes out in May.Hurricane season starts on June 1st.
Accuweather is forecasting an average hurricane season for 2019.The weather company on Wednesday predicted about 12 to 14 named storms would form this year in the Atlantic.Five to seven of them are forecast to become hurricanes, and two to four of those are expected to blow up into major hurricanes.
Klotzbach said the big question is if that will remain true, with so many uncertainties.
One major element in hurricane activity is El Nino. The current status of this Pacific climatic feature is positive.
In early June, there will be update on El Nino--which has the strongest impacts in the Caribbean.