Some of Us are only happy when it rains

Money

In the midst of a strong economy, it seems some economists are trying to dream up problems for the Trump Administration. A group of top economists says it's worried about a recession in 2020.

Texas economist Ray Perryman is a member of the National Association for Business Economics. But he says it's a little early to worry about the sky falling.

"They're worried about the deficit continuing to explode, a very restrictive trade policy and immigration policy; if all those things turn out in the worst way, so to speak, we certainly could have a recession -- we could have one for some other reason. But at this point in time there's nothing obvious on the horizon."

The economy is still recovering from the Great Recession -- in fact, if we go another year it'll be the longest recovery in history. But Dr. Perryman says this is nothing like the lead-up to 2008.

"I think it's just speculation; we're always doing something stupid in the economy. We have too much credit card debt, we have too much student loan debt, whatever the case may be. But if you stop and look at it none of them are as big in magnitude as the mortgage crisis or the dot.com crisis -- they're not even close."

Many of the NABE economists expect a downturn by the end of next year.  Dr. Perryman says this sort of doom and gloom can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If investors are convinced the economy is going to tank, it probably will.

 

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